How to beat the Heat

The Heat may be a dynasty in the making, a new prototype for the future NBA championship contenders and an instant highlight machine. But there’s a good chance this season after the hype has worn off that they will resemble an NFL ball control offense that needs to grind out wins. That’s my prediction for the NBA’s biggest non-lockout story heading into the 2010-11 season. I’m not saying there won’t be flashes of brilliance, especially now that LeBron James has assumed the Magic Johnson role. Put together two of the top five players in the L, especially ones as physically gifted as James and Dwayne Wade, and you’ve got some serious posterization potential. Add in Chris Bosh’s penchant for filling the stat sheet and I think Miami could win 60 games. But it might not be that pretty.

My reasons? Take a look at last year’s free throw leaders per attempt. James was number 3. Wade was four. Both attempted over 700 free throws. And you don’t have to glance far to see Bosh at 7. He shot 590 in 70 games. Added together the big three shot 26 free throws a game. That’s more than all but seven teams averaged in 2009-10.

While all three players might see a drop in their statistical averages across the board, free throw attempts should remain high particularly for James and Wade. The two perimeter players have made a healthy living by taking opponents off the dribble and drawing fouls. Some would say too healthy considering how NBA referees often bail them out. Still, last season free throw makes accounted for over 25 percent of the points per game for both players.

Bosh’s case is a little different. Even though he’s 6’11”, he is far more comfortable facing the basket. In fact, anyone who had the misfortune to watch the Raptors a lot can tell you just how boring Toronto’s offense could be. It centered around Jose Calderon getting Bosh the ball at the elbows, free throw line extended or occasionally on the block and then the latter going one-on-one.

That’s why Bosh’s numbers are even more skewed. A third of his points usually come from the charity stripe. Of the three, Bosh knows his game will probably have to change the most. Miami just doesn’t have the height to compete without Bosh doing some dirty work down low and he has vowed to do just that. Which means that while his scoring average (24 per last season) should dip, his free throws may not.

I know what you’re thinking. The Heat cannot be defended with LBJ handling the ball and either taking it to the rim or setting up Wade, Bosh or a wing like Mike Miller. But teams can avoid a seemingly endless (and boring) march to the free throw line by doing something even more boring: Playing zone. Miami’s signing of Miller was intended to offset opponents’ ability to pack the lane. He shot 48 percent from three last season (in just 54 games). Now Miller has hurt the thumb on his shooting hand and is out until January. But even with Miller, I’d definitely experiment with a zone against Miami. Wade is just a 29 percent career shooter from three. And even though James has come a long way with his jumper, long range is not his strength. The key in playing against a zone for Miami may be Bosh working the baseline for easy buckets since the Heat have virtually no low post presence. Teams like Boston, Orlando and the Lakers can beat the Heat by wearing them down inside, limiting possessions, and muddying the track Miami plans to run on.

As much hype as has been bandied about (like Jeff Van Gundy saying Miami will win 70 games and not lose back-to-back all season), Miami is still something of an experiment. This team has serious firepower, but it’s not the Showtime Lakers or the “Seven-seconds-or-less” Suns. In addition, the preseason has shown the team is thin, perhaps Indianapolis Colts-thin with Wade playing the Bob Sanders role. From what I’ve heard James is on a mission and is trying to put his stamp on the team in practices. That’s good because every team in the league wants to take down the Heat. In the end, any karmic justice on behalf of the other 29 NBA teams may come in the Heat being frustrated by a zone, which may not be all that fun to watch.