Thursday, May 28, 2009

Through 5

Great piece by Simmons on the refs on ESPN.com today. I agree with most of it. One exception was last night's game against the Nuggs. I thought it was the best officiated game of the series. Maybe that's because Game 4 was the worst, but with a few exceptions, I thought it was pretty fair. Were there a couple of bad calls on Nene? Yeah. Although his sixth could have been judged a block (and was) depending on the ref's angle. As it turned out, it was a bad call. Did Luke Walton foul out on a bunch of bad calls the game before? Sure. But you can chalk that up to home court to a certain sense. In a way, Game 5 was the first home game I thought the Lakers received more calls, got some home cooking. That happens. That's part of one's home court advantage.

But of all people, George Karl complained about last night's game while weasily saying he didn't want to complain. Specifically, he and Simmons mentioned all the times Melo got hacked. As if the Nuggets haven't been grabbing and clawing at the Lakers in the paint. Several times last night Kobe went to the rim and was unrewarded by the officials. That's ok by me. He gets too many calls to begin with. But the refs have treated Melo with kid gloves in every single game prior to last night. And he still took 13 foul shots. I know that's part of his MO. Be aggressive, drive to the hole, draw fouls but Game 5 was the fourth straight game where he shot double-digit free throws and two of those have been on the Lakers home court. And in Game 1, the only game he didn't shoot at least ten FTs (he had 8 in a game where he was 14-20 from the field), the Nuggets went to the line 35 times to the Lakers 24. Add in the terrible no call on JR Smith's jump ball violation in Game 2 and I'd say Denver has had it pretty good in this series. If anybody has been given calls it's them. If Chauncey Billups runs into you and falls down it's always a call. His four-point play against Kobe in Game 3 was an awful call.

As LO pointed out this was probably the Lakers best game of the playoffs. And it wasn't because Kobe and Pau dominated and the offense flowed. It was beacuse they scrapped and played D at the rim. They put in the effort and it paid off. One more effort like that and they'll be playing for the title.

Still, one thing scares me about the officiating and that's this 7 techs equals a suspension rule. It's a horrible rule and it just might cost either Kobe or Dwight Howard a game down the line. I can't speak to how dumb the league would look if one of their marquee guys couldn't suit up for an NBA Finals game because he had too many techs in the playoffs. About as dumb as they looked in the Phoenix-SA series two years ago. People want to see the stars and teams at full strength. I don't know why Denver doesn't have Jason Hart enter the game and try and mug Kobe and get him mad. Thankfully, the L rescinded Howard's sixth T after Varejao tackled him on the way to the basket and I think the league will do everything it can not to let one of these two superstars miss a game. But you never know. Just ask Amare.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Bullish on Bryant, not on Billups

After Sunday's escape I like the Lakers against the Nuggs. As I've said before, the playoffs are about matchups and against Denver the Lakers win almost every one. I'll take the Lakers in six and the Cavs in seven. I think Cleveland finally gets a test.

What I like about the Lakes boils down to their bigs (assuming they come to play) and Kobe. Bryant had a very mediocre series against Houston. He settled for jumpshots which is what he did in the regular season against the Rockets. The results were some poor shooting nights. I was encouraged to see though that in both Game 5 and 7 he took the ball to the basket a little more. In Game 5, it was a quick and read and go. In Game 7, he ran into a ton of congestion and didn't get a whole lot of calls. Believe me, Dahntay Jones is a welcomed sight for the Bean. And what happens when/if Jones goes the the bench? The Nuggets can't rotate someone like Artest or Battier over to try and stop the Kobester.

I can't stress how important a free Kobe is. At times, PJ puts a bunch of guys on the floor that are all mostly facilitators. Some of those early second Q lineups had me screaming at the TV. You need guys on the floor that can create and make shots. And as good as the Lakers are offensively, Kobe carries a lion share. If he's not lighting it up for 40 points, he can create opportunities for others just by being out on the floor.

Secondly, even though KB has a more than a tendency to go tit for tat when playing another superstar, he should recognize that against Denver he can get his more easily when the bigs are scoring. He always pulls playground stuff against both Wade and LeBron. I'm hoping he doesn't do this with Carmelo or even Billups. I really like Chauncey's game but I don't think he can win a series for you anymore. I know he had a big game against the Hornets in Round 1, but I don't think he's ever played as well as he did against the Lakers in the 2004 NBA finals.

Third, as everyone is jumping on the Nuggets bandwagon I'd say look at their competition so far. The NOH did not have a healthy center and the Mavs' best big rarely ventured below fifteen feet. Yes, the Nuggets are 8-2 but they could be 8-0. And now they don't have home court. I also think it's an advantage for the Lakers to play a quick turnaround in Game 1. LA should be pumped tonight and I think they'll win. Maybe not Vegas big but by around ten I'd say.

Friday, May 15, 2009

I give up

As someone who watches nearly every Laker game I'm really at a loss to explain their play last night or against the Rockets in general. At one point, after I had resigned myself to a Game 7, I thought the Lakers would come back and win Game 6. It was there. After the first half, or even first Q, Houston didn't play all that great. Unfortunately, the Rockets hit enough clutch shots late in the third and into the fourth to win it. After LA gave them that comfortable cushion.

I've written before on how the Lakers seem to add a degree of difficulty to their play this year. This has been highlighted even more in the Houston series. Take for instance Pau Gasol. I thought he was terrible in Game 6. Why he can't catch the ball deeper or back in Chuck Hayes (who is half a foot shorter) on every play is beyond me. Add in his awful defense against Scola and this was one of his worst playoff games as a Laker.

If you look at the stats, excluding their palty 80 total points, you might think LA didn't play that poorly. They took 13 more shots than Houston. They outrebounded the Rockets. They had fewer turnovers. And yet they never led. Take a gander at the Lakes' plus/minus numbers. Everyone gets an F on that one. For all intents and purposes, they were in the game for a few minutes in the third. Then Houston hit some big shots and it was over.

The biggest stat is that this was only the second time the Lakers have lost a game wire to wire. The first was Game 4. That's a telling stat. Even when they endured embarassing losses during the regular season, nearly all of them were close games that the Lakers had a chance to win (nearly every game against the Rockets this season was close). This was also a quality, if you can call it that, of last year's team. Sometimes they played down to their competition but they always were competitive. They never got blown out, with the exception of Game 6 in Boston.

So why are the Rockets such a difficult puzzle to solve? Are the Lakers really playing as poorly as it seems? And who is to blame? The best I can do is this: Despite their February trip through the east coast where they really played decent defense (see the second half at Cleveland), the Lakers have relied way too much on their offense. PJ basically threw the towel in on LA improving defensively early in the season. The caveat to this is they can defend, they're capable of defending against certain teams. The playoffs are about matchups and the Lakers match up well against slower methodical teams (Utah, Houston, Cleveland). That's why they were psyched to play the Rockets, who with Yao are a grind away team. Without him or TMac they are, as Charles says, a bunch of scrappy pit bulls.

The Lakers players are to blame in much of this but Phil Jackson's refusal to adjust to the Rockets new lineup I believe has cost them a chance of closing this out earlier. As was evident in Game 3, late in Game 4 and in Game 5, using Farmar and Brown to combat Houston's quickness on the perimeter is a good thing. So why is PJ so married to playing Fish, to starting Fish until he shows he doesn't have it. The Lakes bigs are bad enough rotating to a driving guard. But they have no chance with the way Fish has escorted Brooks to the basket.

Also perplexing is why PJ has stuck with Sasha throughout this series. Even in their forty-point win he sucked. Cut the cord. Play the players who are doing reasonably well like Brown and Jordan. I'm not even going to get into how Vlad might have helped this roster. Brown has played well enough. Give him more minutes and earlier. And pressure the Rockets ballhandlers. It works.

All this said, I and I'm sure most Laker fans, expect a win on Sunday. And should that happen I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers beat the Nuggets and the Cavs. The way LA played Games 2, 3 and 5 certainly means something, right? But for all the time I've spent watching them this year, I'm really struggling to explain what exactly that is. I'm not sure even Sunday will tell us but right now Sunday is all we have.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Celts-Bulls

After sleeping on it, I think the refs made the right call on Rondo in assessing him a flagrant 1 (although I still think he could have been tossed). He wasn't and finished with a pretty incredible game. He can't shoot (4-17) but 19 assists and nine boards and zero turnovers is impressive. Throw in Ray Allen's amazing output (his ball has so little backspin and I can't think of a great shooter with a similar shot) and it was a great game.

As for the greatness of the series, I am tempering my praise. There have been some great finishes, particularly, as Sir Charles pointed out last night, on the part of the Cs. It seems like Allen and Paul Pierce have made about 20 game-tying shots. But the one problem I really have is the Bulls blowing leads and their inability to finish. They should have won Game 2. They blew a 13-point lead in Game 5 and a ten-point lead last night.

Part of this is attributed to their youth. Derrick Rose had five turnovers last night and looked shakey down the stretch aside from his block on Rondo, one of the best game-saving blocks of all time. To recover like that takes a special player. The Bulls real problem is their coach. In Game 1, Vinny Del Negro ran out of timeouts. Ok, rookie coach. In Game 2, the same thing happened and it cost Chicago a chance to advance the ball and get a better game-ending shot.

I'm not sure that mattered so much considering the plays the Bulls run out of timeouts. There's no movement and too many times they end up going one on one with Gordon, Rose or Salmons taking contested shots. At the end of the second OT last night, they didn't even get a shot up with Brad Miller handling and losing the ball around half court. When Perkins fouled out, only once did they take the ball to the hole.

You notice these things when you're rooting for a team (I'm actually rooting against the Cs because I hate them). I'm certainly not the first to say it but Del Negro looks so over his head. If it wasn't for the clutch shots Gordon and Rose and last night Miller and Salmons have made, this series would have been over in five in favor of the Cs. It's no compliment to VDN that Bulls could have won this series in the same amount of games.