Friday, April 15, 2011

My Picks

Just a quick post to get my picks on record (not that I'm willing to wager).

It seems many experts have gone mostly chalk for the first round matchups. It makes sense. It's hard to beat a favorite four times. So as much as one might like Memphis or Portland or even Denver there's a tendency to go with the top seeds.

The West

Spurs-Grizzlies:
I hate the Spurs, although this season's incarnation is a little more tolerable since they often try to outscore opponents. They're still better than anybody in limiting the quality of possessions of opponents. By which I mean they play smarter than you do, don't take bad shots and can occasionally run you off the court with their three-point shooters. Their path to the playoffs is not that different from the Lakers but with better results. They've saved their big three for this time of the year. That is, they had until Pop played them in the final game and Ginobili hyperextended his right elbow. In a career filled with brilliant coaching moves, this might be Coach Pop's worst. He says he wanted them to be sharp but if you sit them for the Lakers then why not the Suns. Don't get it.

The Grizz have played well without Rudy Gay, rallying behind (of all people) Tony Allen. They play good defense and create a lot of turnovers. They also turn the ball over a good deal themselves. Give Z-Bo the edge over Duncan but I don't think they have enough O to win four. Spurs in six.

Lakers-Hornets:
My boys were five seconds and a Kobe three away from playing Portland. NOLA should be a much easier task even with Bynum a bit hobbled. I think he'll play Sunday for limited minutes. CP3 is not the same player he was two years ago. David West is one of those Laker killers but he's hurt. Carl Landry manages to beat up on the Lakes too, but he's not as good as West. I like the Lakers in five.

Mavericks-Blazers:
A lot of people love the Blazers in this matchup especially now that Gerald Wallace is on board. I'm kind of on the fence. Whenever I watch Portland, I'm not all that impressed. Batum is decent and no one is laughing at the Wesley Matthews signing now. But Aldridge is the key. In fact, I'd say whoever has the bigger series between Aldridge and Nowitski will determine which team wins. I'll take Portland in seven.

Thunder-Nuggets:
Thank god both of these teams are on the other side of the bracket although I think the Lakers could take Denver because of matchups. The fashionable pick is OKC and who could disagree after the last two games between the two. Still, I think the Nuggets make it interesting. Thunder in seven.

The East

Bulls-Pacers:
I agree with the idea of playoff teams being able to focus on taking away Rose's scoring and generally making things tough for him. The Pacers are not the team to do it though. I like Chicago in five.

Heat-Sixers:
For all the talk of the Bulls' great second half, there's no team I'd rather not play than the Heat. In fact, I'm tempted to pick them to go all the way even though I hate their guts. Philly is banged up but I still see them taking a game. Miami in five.

Celtics-Knicks:
As bad as the Cs played down the stretch, they rarely looked worse than the Knicks. New York could take two but neither will be on the Celtics' home court. Boston in six.

Magic-Hawks:
Two teams with almost zero heart. The Hawks are a mess as usual. And for all the talk of how Mike D'Antoni's system can't win championships, you rarely hear people say the same of Stan Van's three-happy offense in Orlando. I'll say it. It's a terrible, feast-or-famine system which is a shame because they're a good defensive team. Howard has molded himself into a great player but as much as I like Stan Van, I think he should get even more out of his center. Seriously, why isn't he averaging 30 points a game? Atlanta won the season series 3-1 but I don't see them winning more than two here. Magic in six.