The Rookie Age Limit

O.J. Mayo returned to LA last night with the Griz and while Kobe torched him in the first quarter, he still managed to finish with 17 points including three treys. As USC fans know, Mayo has the ability to be a game changer. Last year, the Trojans offense ran through him whether he was at the point or not. And though he can certainly handle the ball, his future is as a big-time scorer. He currently averages 19.2 points per game and has been around the 20-point mark all season. The last NBA rookies to average at least 20 per are Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, and Shaquille O’Neal.

That’s heavy company and yet Mayo is not a lock for ROY. Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose and Brook Lopez are all viable candidates with some people giving Westbrook the nod off his fabulous February. The 2008 draft was not thought to be a strong one (2009 almost undoubtedly will be weaker still), but there’s something to be said for the depth of last year’s class. In addition to the four named above, players like Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Rudy Fernandez, Marreese Speights and Michael Beasley all have made significant contributions. And of the ten top rookies (you can throw in Greg Oden for ten), eight of them played one year or less of college ball.

It’s interesting because if you believe the tea leaves being deciphered by the likes David Falk and Bill Simmons, the NBA is in such bad shape financially that the players are a virtual lock to be locked out come 2011 when the current CBA ends. And both Falk and Simmons say that whenever the new CBA is ratified (Simmons doesn’t put a possible year or two-year shutdown past the owners), a 20-year-old age limit for rookies will be imposed. In the recent NY Times piece, Falk suggested the age limit be raised to 20 or 21 because current rookies lack fan familiarity and have eroded play.

Taking into account the economic climate, it’s clear the players are in line to make big concessions and I doubt whether they really care about the union members who are not members yet. Afterall, rookies have to take someone’s job. But I just don’t see how this makes sense for the owners. Today’s rook, as opposed to the days of Larry Johnson, is relatively cheap. Even if Greg Oden never lives up to being the number one pick, the Blazers could cut ties with him in two more years at a cost of a little over 10 million. That’s less that Joel Pryzbilla (13.1 million) is set to make.

Second, in today’s media saturated sports landscape, Falk’s notion of fan familiarity couldn’t be more antiquated. I don’t know how much more familiar people could have been with Durant who so dominated college basketball that he was POY as a frosh. What would it mean if he had to return for his sophomore season? If the next Durant or Kobe or Lebron came from a low-income background, why wouldn’t he just pull up sticks and go to Europe like Brandon Jennings. Biding your time with a year of college is one thing, but two years means you’re leaving a lot of money on the table. Right now European clubs appear willing to soften the blow. Jennings is making over 3.5 million from his contract and an Under Armour endorsement. And he’s not becoming any more fan familiar playing for Lottomatica Roma.

As for eroding play, just look around the league. If you use the All-star game rosters as a barometer, only six players (Granger, Nelson, Pierce, Duncan, West, and Roy) went to school for more than two years while ten All-stars did not play any college ball (LBJ, Kobe, Garnett, Lewis, Howard, Amare, Yao, Dirk, Gasol, Parker). Add in Bosh and it’s eleven who played one year or less. Two of the L’s three best players, Kobe and Lebron, are straight out of high school, and the third, Dwyane Wade really only played two years at Marquette since he sat out his freshman year because of academics.

It’s only a matter of time before players like Mayo, Rose and Durant become all-stars themselves (If you ask me Durant should have made this year’s team over David West). So while the owners may get just about everything they ask for in the next CBA, changing the age limit would be a mistake. The NBA, not the NCAA or Europe, showcases the best players in world. Keeping it that way should be a priority.